From First to Fifth…and some Rs!

Random thoughts:

-       Which HoCo candidate will be brave enough to adopt as their slogan, “54 40 or Fight?”

-       When will the first announcement occur (ok, fine, the second announcement)?

-       What will be the strength of the “R” brand in 2018? Will local GOPers be running towards or away from Trump?  How fast/how near or far?

-       Who will win the Game of Thrones? (the smart money is on Sansa Stark)

-       Situating Monie, is she indeed “in the middle?” Discuss.

-       Will the Republicans bother putting up a candidate in the Fourth? 

-       Who will deliver their announcement speech entirely in the Mid-Atlantic accent?

Enough of that.  I have a table full of brass tacks and it’s time to get down (to them).

Among Democrats:

In the First District, assuming that Jon Weinstein runs for re-election (a safe bet), I don’t think he is likely to face a serious primary challenge.  Lisa Markovitz, of the “People’s Voice,” would lose, badly, in a primary.  She may opt to run as a Republican or perhaps as an Independent I suppose. I believe she will channel her energies elsewhere, either through her PAC or by seeking another office.

The Fifth District is probably eight years away from being competitive.  With that in mind, this author recognizes the importance of fighting the good fight.  Dr. Zaneb “Zee” Beams would be the best option as the standard-bearer for the Democratic Party.  She is incredibly smart and is knowledgeable on a host of salient issues (including, but not limited to, education and health care).  Question: will she be able to ignore what some damn fool blogger says when they discuss communications styles?  Time will tell. Seriously, she should run. 

Whoa, wait, slow down you move too fast. What about the Republican County Council candidates?  Excellent query fictitious questioner.  It’s like you know my every move.  I received very few R names.  I assume it is because they fear the Voice of Truth.  But placing that aside, I know a former Republican Congressman who would sit down and meet with his opponents over a cup of coffee at the outset of the campaign.  It didn’t always establish a more civil tone, but it helped the candidates see each other as human beings.  Frankly, I don’t know why more folks haven’t reached out to this author in this manner.  Oh sure, I am going to write what I am going to write…and God knows I can’t control Slats.  That said, I am less likely to let fly via my blog if I think you are a 1) decent person, 2) with genuinely held beliefs, and 3) don’t possess antediluvian views. 

My mother, being a salt of the Earth Michiganian (note: do not call me a Michigander, I am not a duck) often says, “if you can’t say anything nice, don’t say anything at all.”  She also reminds me to “never put anything in writing,” so I don’t always heed her advice, clearly.  That said, here is what I have heard on the GOP side for all of the County Council Districts:

District One:

Kevin Forrest Schmidt.  Ran a close race in a competitive district in ‘14.  I think he hit his high water mark last time around.

Christine O’Connor.  I believe she is both a Republican and a resident of the 1^st.  She has some strength here, as witnessed by her electoral showing in multiple precincts in Eastern HoCo in 2014 (albeit for a non-partisan race).  She may decide to run for Council as opposed to seeking re-election to the Board of Education.   

District Two:

Reg Avery.  Pass.

District Three:

FIVE names, count ‘em.  This one might be interesting.  I don’t believe the Republicans can win in the Third but there are some serious people whose names are being floated, especially the first three:

Dennis Schrader

Diane Wilson

Susan Garber

Jimmy Williams

Chris Yates

District Four:

Crickets.

District Five:

Actually this is intriguing as well.  I’ve heard five names:

Vicky Cutroneo.  I don’t know her that well but I thought she ran a solid campaign for the Board of Education.  She was responsive to my candidate questionnaire and seems like a nice person overall.  I may have cost her support in a GOP primary just now, my apologies.

Chris Oxenham. Next.

A “Kittleman offspring” was how it was first floated to me. No joke.  I am assuming Haley is the Kittleman in mind.  She is an educator (a plus in the Booms household) and I hear good things about her.     

Frank Mirabile.  If he secures the GOP nomination, this clown shoes will be a frequent topic of discussion on Spartan Considerations.

David Yungmann.  Submitted without further comment.

So what is next?  When I have the time:  a look at the Board of Education…and I might just combine this with people whose names are mentioned but not in connection with a specific office. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Thunder on the Right and Grand Theft Punditry

Note to JB: try changing your password. GrandVerbalizer93? Do you log on to your blog using Prodigy?

Slats here.  I saw the reaction to my Guest Column (four words: laudatory and deservedly so) and thought I would chime in. 

I heard about this Frank Mirabile (among other Republicans) looking at a County Executive primary run.  He is more of a symptom of a larger issue.  In the 1990s, you could get away with triangulating, Bill Clinton did that with the liberals in the Democratic caucus and with the Republicans who controlled the House for most of his Presidency.  It worked (plus ou moins) because you had deal-cutters on all sides (R/D, White House/Senate/House of Reps), and this was particularly the case between 1995 and December 1997.

Kittleman doesn’t have Bill Clinton’s political skills.  He reads glass-jaw to me, but what do I know. I am writing this 50 feet from a fjord.  Beyond that, today’s Republican Party is so radicalized, institutionally and from the top down, that any effort by a conservative like Kittleman (who tries to play the role of moderate) is going to fire up the folks to his right.  This Sanctuary bill puts him in a tough spot.  If he backs it, someone like Mirabile is starting at 30% - 35% in a primary instantaneously.  It becomes the “No New Taxes” in HoCo in the Trump era.  But if he doesn’t support the concept behind the Sanctuary bill, Kittleman loses support among Democrats and moderates who like having a “good Republican” for whom they can vote (See: Anderson ’80, Huntsman ’12, Kasich ‘16).

Frankly, the bill should have three votes on the Council right now.  I understand that Jon Weinstein may have some concerns, but I am not sure why Sigaty is holding back.  Unless she has decided that she wants to run to the right of folks like Ball or Woodcock.  How will that work out for her? Ask President Paul Fucking Tsongas.

Anyway, it seems like the Nullifiers are where the Democratic base is when it comes to Federal immigration policy and the incoming Administration.  It’s a values play: are Americans generous of spirit and respectful of our neighbors or do we run around demanding, “papers, please?”  I don’t know all of the details about that particular piece of legislation, but the fundamental principles behind the debate are the important ones.  And it is always fun when Democrats are able to coalesce human rights, civil rights and state’s rights issues into one package.

Let me answer JB’s viewer mail.  I know his job keeps him occupied and my answers are no better than guesses but until these reindeer stop grazing around my 4C, I am stuck at this bar for a while.

I think he wants to write about other races, including the Board of Education.  He seems jazzed about the current pro-Reform bloc on the BoE and sees opportunities for further progress, with the right candidates, in 2018.  I’m not sure if he thinks there is much to say about County Districts 1 or 5 right now, although he seems high on a “Doctor Z ” even though he is pretty sure she is still steamed over the Schmaltz Incident of ’14.  I think he wants to write about State Legislative Districts 12 and 13…and 9B to a lesser extent, but he wants to hear more from certain incumbents before he engages in open, public speculation involving potential retirements and shifting slates in ’18.

Will he write more? Depends on the gig.  As his mentor, I always told him the key is to “retire young, retire rich.”  The hard-headed bastard never listens. 

Serious offers only on the alpacas.  As is.