Four-on-the-Floor , 15 up for '18?

First, allow me to thank Slats for his spirited analysis of the Howard County Executive race-that –might-be. Second, further permit me to assure you that his thoughts generally reflect the editorial line of this blog. 

Except for the limericks, I removed those.

Before I delve into an early look at County Council District #4, let me begin with some light math.

Population estimate for Howard County (2015) according to the U.S. Census: 313,414. 

Five Council Districts assuming all are roughly equal in size (key word: roughly) = 62,682 residents apiece.  This figure includes people who aren’t yet of the voting age population and it includes non-registered voters who are of legal age to cast a ballot.

Looking at recent contested primaries at this level, relatively speaking, it doesn’t take that many votes to win…

2014:  County Council District One.  Competitive four-way Democratic primary.  4,947 total votes cast, the leading vote getter won with 1,643.

2014: County Council District One. Competitive two-way Republican primary.  2,052 total votes cast, the winner had 1,343.

2014: County Council District Two.  Competitive two-way Republican primary.  1,337 total votes cast, with the eventual nominee obtaining 850.

2010: County Council District Four.  Competitive two-way Democratic primary.  6,238 total votes cast, with the winner securing 3,888.

So what happens if the Open Seat in 4 draws 6 candidates? 8? 10?  Even with a turnout of, say, 10,000 votes, how many votes would constitute a plurality? 

As of this writing, I received 15 names of potential candidates.  All Democrats.  Here they are with some back of the envelope analysis.  These candidates are in no particular order.  Or are they?  They might be in a particular order.  More or less. 

Candace Dodson-Reed.  Heavy hitter in the Ulman Administration who gets both politics and public policy.  Currently playing a key communications and public affairs role at UMBC.  Long-time Democratic activist with many friends in the Fourth.  Would be an excellent candidate for a County or State office.

Byron Macfarlane.  Register of Wills.  Progressive, good-government reform type. Proven County-wide vote getter (twice).  If he were to run, he would instantly be in the top tier.

Bill Santos.  Engineer by trade with a deep background in community engagement and planning/zoning issues.  No slouch on technical expertise.  No one knows Columbia better.  Unknown Factor: would he be a good candidate for public office? 

Josh Tzuker.  Attorney and former Hill Staffer.  Smart, policy-wonk-ish, especially on Federal issues.  Honestly? I don’t know him well enough to comment further on his skillset.

Meet the Feldmarks.  Jessica (current Council Administrator, one couldn’t ask for a better position outside of being a Council Member to see the ins and outs of how it works).  Extensive experience in County government.  And Joshua (non-profit and government experience with a particular focus on sustainability, a salient topic in Howard County). Both also have experience at the community level.  That said, how would either fare on the campaign trail?  From what I hear, Jessica might be the better bet of the two…but will she want to run?

Deb Jung.  Attorney who specializes in counseling non-profits.  First, she lives in the Fourth?  I’ve heard her name in connection with the Fourth but, like Josh T, I just don’t know her that well.  I also hear her name mentioned as a possible Board of Education candidate in ’18.

Now for three more Wilde Lake-focused possibilities:

Regina Clay.  Entrepreneur, trade association executive, former Ulman Administration official and Wilde Lake community activist.  With deep roots and many connections in the community, I could see her considering a run.

Kevin McAliley.  Wilde Lake Village Board Chair and owner of a management consulting firm.  He works rooms like a candidate.  I would be surprised if he isn’t weighing throwing his hat into the ring.

Nancy McCord.  Realtor and CA Board Member. When I saw her asking questions regarding Tax Increment Financing at a fairly recent Village Board meeting, she sounded like someone who was thinking about the future of Columbia’s Downtown…and how she might be able to play a different role there.  I don’t know if she is thinking about it, but I would not be shocked.

Back to the list:

Ellen Flynn Giles.  Does she live in the Fourth too?  I am inclined to believe that a future run on her part, if one were to occur, would involve a Board of Education comeback attempt.  Of the three incumbents who lost in 2016, this author believes that she was the best of the three. I am not trying to condemn with faint praise here.  I was elated about the election of Coombs and Ellis and pleased with Delmont-Small winning the third seat.  That said, I would not dismiss a future Giles run for the BoE out of hand.  But for the 4^th?  I am not seeing it. [Note:  it has since been confirmed that she currently resides in another District].

Alan Klein.  I have seen nothing that would lead me to believe he would be a better candidate now compared to 2010, when he was defeated by Sigaty rather handily in a hard-fought race.  Based on his performance on the CA Board, I would be disinclined to vote for Klein in the General Election should he somehow obtain the Democratic nomination.

Ann DeLacy.  She isn’t a bad person.  I've had a couple of pleasant conversations with her. I just wonder what narratives run through her head sometimes.  I think she had some promise, as a public official, at one time but blew it based on some questionable decisions.  I believe her election to the Council would mean four years of divisive shenanigans at a time when our County needs exactly zero of that.  I am not saying that she would be behind all, most, or some of them…but she does have some issues when it comes to working well with others…or reading a room. 

Honorable Mentions:

Liz Bobo and Lloyd Knowles.  I think their years holding public office are behind them, but they retain a certain base in West Columbia.  Stranger things have happened.

So there you have it, an early look at my home district.

Next up?  Perhaps a combined post on Districts 2 and 3.  We shall see...

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

 

A Very "Special" County Executive Preview

From the Desk of S. MacCune

Political Consultant (Ret.?)

Licensed Alpaca Broker

Phrenologist (Blue Belt)

I admit that my connection to Howard County is attenuated. So when the proprietor of Spartan Considerations asked me to pen a Guest Column, my first question was, how much cash on the barrelhead?  JB launched into some bullshit about the spirit of public service; which I knew meant the “thrifty” bastard wasn’t going to part with Dime One.  After reminding me how many times he picked me up from various Eastern Seaboard airports over the years (as if I can drive my Alfa across the Atlantic), I generously agreed to volunteer my talents for this assignment.      

Although I taught JB everything he knew, or could hope to know, I did have two more questions before I could write this piece:  Who are these people and can I write as I talk?  On the former, he gave me the low-down, on the latter, he said “sparingly.”  Fucking A right. 

So, here is my learned perspective on the County Executive race, which I guess is what passes for hot action in certain [square] circles.  Soak it in.  Soak it ALL in.

Incumbent:  Allan Kittleman.  Look, my read is that Gov. Hogan may not run for re-election, in which case AK (Note: do they call him AK?) looks like a decent gubernatorial candidate.  Moderate in personality if not in policy or appointments, he profiles well for a Republican seeking statewide office in Maryland…and by 2018, what’s left of the Establishment Republican Party might be looking hard at folks like AK to keep the hordes from burning down the rest of the barn.  But let’s say he runs for re-election, he starts with a 42% base in a bad GOP cycle and 45% in a good one.  Given his history, he is unlikely to lose in a blow-out but national trends and unforced errors could send him packing after one term.

Possible Challengers (those receiving the most mentions)

Dr. Calvin Ball. Second Council District.   Democrat.  Well-known, well-liked, and well-respected Council Member.  Big on financial literacy (Note: with Education as the most salient issue in HoCo by a country mile, how important is the financial literacy point of differentiation within the larger Jobs/Economy matrix?).  Former community organizer.  Represents a large chunk of Columbia.  Also an educator (See earlier note re: education).   From what I hear, he’s held the “presumptive frontrunner” slot since mid-November of ’14.  There was no primary last time around for CE.  Will that hold a second time around?  I would be skeptical.

Mary Kay Sigaty.  Fourth Council District.  Democrat.  West Columbia + some parts South.  Has emerged as a big Downtown Development advocate over the course of her tenure on the Council. Faced challenges from Slower Growth advocates in her backyard.   Visible on TIF funding to grow downtown Columbia even further (note:  I wasn’t aware the area by the Columbia Mall was blighted, did a dumpster overflow once?).  Qualified for CE? Sure.  Rationale for her candidacy yet?  Not so much from what I hear.

Bill Woodcock.  Oakland Mills. Democrat.  Long-time activist in Democratic party politics? Check.  Knows public policy and how government services are administered? Check.  Willing to take the fight to the GOP nominee and make a case for a progressive governing vision?  Check.  An outsider choice?  Apparently. 

Other Potentials…(not mentioned as often, but the names pop up…)

Jen Terrasa.  Third Council District.  Democrat.  Southern/Eastern HoCo.  High profile in recent months with a differing take on the need for TIF funding for Downtown Columbia.  JB passed along some speculation about JT possibly being Annapolis-bound at some point.  Who knows. 

Note: no wonder why JB writes less these days.  Almost 600 words in.  I am parched for lack of Aberlour.  

Courtney Watson.  Former First District Council Member, former Board of Education Member.  Standard-bearer for the Democratic Party in ’14 as the CE nominee.  Ran into a buzz-fucking-saw of an election year.  Would have won in 8 out of 10 election cycles.  Retains high Name ID.  Serious policy wonk.  Does she want a re-match? 

Delegate Clarence (the Doc) Lam.  Conventional Wisdom is that Annapolis is a better fit…although not necessarily the House of Delegates. According to observers, look for a shake-up in the D12 Slate for ’18.

Ken Ulman.  Former CE.  Might be a loophole allowing him to seek a third term.  US Grant thought about it, Teddy Roosevelt wanted to, as did Woodrow Wilson.  Didn’t work out for them, and some think it might be tough sledding for Ulman if he went down the Comeback Lane.

Tom Coale.  Attorney.  Ellicott City booster.  Whispers but the smart money is on a big PASS for Coale in ’18.  Maybe Annapolis down the road or a County office in a future cycle.

So all of this is third hand anyway.  Speculation and musings from Maryland’s Heartland. 

Let’s see who reads this far.  What does JB write? “Stay tuned as….” Screw it, who wants an alpaca?  They make great pets.  They eat Combos, no muss, no fuss. Email me. Let’s make some moves.         

Prelude to a Prelude

Greetings HoCo Readers.

So now that I have the voice of Bill Hader in my head, intoning the words in a TimeLife Announcer persona, "The music...of John Denver..." I am far too mellow to re-visit the 2018 Election Preview.  Tranquility is a scarce commodity, so I will ride this train until the tracks end.

The trouble with the Preview is that it means naming names.  That leads to assessing strengths and weaknesses.  With multiple friends, acquaintances, and non-bitter enemies considering public office in the next cycle, I am loathe to delve into such critiques.  Not during this Holiday Season, not after this long and yet unfinished year.

I will say this, in terms of the County seats upon which I am likely to focus (blog coverage-wise) in 2017-2018, I would say they are, in precisely the following order:

1) County Council District #4.  With a strong probability of a multi-candidate field (as is the likely scenario for all open Council seats), I am most concerned about my home district.  I want a good, smart, progressive, and electable Democrat to emerge as the nominee.  Someone who is running for a Greater Purpose.  I know some very interesting folks who are looking at this seat,  some who I don't know as well, and one or two complete non-starters who need to ask themselves, "am I doing this to promote the common good or am I just on a massive ego trip?" Unfortunately, those in the last group tend to lack that measure of self-awareness.

2) County Council District #1.  Big Jon W. in the only legit swing Council District.  If re-elected, as he should be since he has been an excellent, grassroots-focused, and very practical Good Government public servant, he will be the sole returning member of the Council.  The partisan breakout of the First would appear to invite a top shelf, or at least second tier, R opponent.  So I will probably write about this race a fair amount.

3) County Executive. To be honest, i am just not that focused on the County race that is likely to draw the most attention in 2018.  Oh sure, I could go on about the Trump/Kittleman Republican Party, but is my heart into it at the moment?  Nope.  Perhaps post-Announcement(s).

4) (tie) County Council Districts #2 and #3.  Some interesting potential candidates for both seats.  For now, see my tagline.

6) The Board of Education (4 seats).  As of this writing, I have no idea if all four up for re-election will run again, or if no one will.  My assumption is that two will.  If some interesting challengers leap into the fray, I may spend some time on the BoE, especially when forum season rolls around.

7) County Council District #5.  Wake me up in 2022.

That will do it for today.  I hope everyone has a Happy New Year!

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

A Crisis of Legitimacy

Originally posted in mid-December 2016.  I pulled it for a variety of reasons. Here is the post, as it was written:

Of the seven closest presidential elections in U.S. history, as determined by requiring the fewest number of vote flips to give the other major candidate a majority in the Electoral College (since the popular vote began to be recorded in the 1824 presidential election), three have occurred in the last five elections.

In eras of relative partisan parity at the national level, close elections will happen.  Such was the case in the late 19^th century.  Such is the case now. 

Of those seven closest elections, the losing candidate won the popular vote in three of them, Gore in 2000, Tilden in 1876, and Clinton in 2016.

Small, and sometimes large, events can make a difference.  Gore’s lackluster debate performances, Ralph Nader, and some ballot design choices in Florida cost him the 2000 election.    Tilden was defeated in an election marred by violence, threats of violence, and fraudulent activities throughout the unreconstructed South, requiring an Electoral Commission to resolve the matter (along with some backroom dealing better known as the Compromise of 1877). 

However, these issues were home-grown. 

Clinton’s case is different from the other two as it represents a situation where a foreign power apparently sought to influence our presidential election and, by doing so, potentially changed the outcome.

This author supports the bipartisan call to investigate Russian involvement in our presidential elections.    Foreign interference in our electoral process cannot be countenanced.  Further, if after taking office, it is proven that the current presumptive PEOTUS was aware of, and actively supported, such efforts, the U.S. Congress, in accordance with their Constitutional responsibilities, should begin impeachment proceedings.

Closest presidential elections in U.S. history:

             National Popular         National Popular         Votes to Flip  

              Vote Difference          Vote % lead               

1.     2000    Gore + 543, 895          Gore + 0.5%                269 (.00025%)

2.     1884    Cleveland +57,577      Cleveland +0.6%         524  (.0052%)

3.     1876    Tilden +254,235          Tilden +3.0%               445 (.00529%)

4.     1916    Wilson +578,140         Wilson +3.1%              1,711 (.009%)

5.     1960    Kennedy +112,827      Kennedy +0.17%         12,236 (.018%)

6.     2016    Clinton +2,840,337      Clinton +2.1%              38,599 (.028%)

7.     2004    Bush +3,010,610         Bush +2.5%                 59,300 (.048%)

Stay tuned, as more will follow.