More in Sorrow than in Anger

I don’t know Greg Fox that well, but he strikes this author as the lumbering embodiment of the Peter Principle.  In my former career as a Very Important Republican ™, I would meet office-holders like Fox all of the time…generally hyper-parochial and somewhere on the George Babbitt spectrum of unoriginal.  Entirely unremarkable…of whom little is given, less is expected. And on that measure, Fox does not disappoint.

The point of this is to say that when folks hold themselves up to a higher standard of progressive thinking, unlike Fox, they had better deliver the goods.  This is where word has to match up with deed and this is where Allan Kittleman, with his promised veto of the sanctuary bill, falls short.  If you want to be a different kind of Republican, now is the time to demonstrate your values by your actions.  I read his statement and found a great deal of the rationale therein to be disingenuous fear-mongering.  Right out of the old Newt Gingrich/Joe Gaylord playbook.  I didn’t see anything that was reassuring in the least to those who might feel “othered,” Not even a nod recognizing legitimate fears, like those expressed by the woman in Tom Coale’s excellent piece today. 

So I can only believe that this is the real Allan Kittleman, or that he is posturing for another office and he feels the need to align himself, on this wedge issue, closer to where the Maryland GOP base is. 

On a related note, do I know what Governor Hogan’s plans are?  Oddly enough, Big Lar’ doesn’t confide in me his electoral intentions.  His loss.  At least he had the fortitude to grab for the brass ring in ‘14.  I, personally, would wager at this moment that he runs for re-election, but something closer to 60% likelihood on that, in short, not a slam dunk.  His favorability numbers are quite good now, but so were George H.W. Bush’s approval ratings in early ’91.  Even if he runs for re-election, I believe it will be a tough road for Hogan assuming the Democrats nominate a half-way decent candidate.  Maybe he wants to focus on governance and not on campaigning?  Take the James K. Polk approach perhaps.  Stranger things have happened. 

If he doesn’t seek re-election, the lack of anything near a deep bench means that the GOP will be looking for any Republicans who might be electable, and with Kittleman’s positioning on the sanctuary bill, he might just be palatable enough to emerge as the GOP nominee in ’18.   We should know about Hogan’s plans within the next few months.  Stay tuned.

In the meantime, all “Democrats for Kittleman” should remember where he stood on the sanctuary issue.  Maybe it’s time to donate those T-shirts.

Next up:  Thoughts on 2 and 3, probably before the end of this weekend.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Thunder on the Right and Grand Theft Punditry

Note to JB: try changing your password. GrandVerbalizer93? Do you log on to your blog using Prodigy?

Slats here.  I saw the reaction to my Guest Column (four words: laudatory and deservedly so) and thought I would chime in. 

I heard about this Frank Mirabile (among other Republicans) looking at a County Executive primary run.  He is more of a symptom of a larger issue.  In the 1990s, you could get away with triangulating, Bill Clinton did that with the liberals in the Democratic caucus and with the Republicans who controlled the House for most of his Presidency.  It worked (plus ou moins) because you had deal-cutters on all sides (R/D, White House/Senate/House of Reps), and this was particularly the case between 1995 and December 1997.

Kittleman doesn’t have Bill Clinton’s political skills.  He reads glass-jaw to me, but what do I know. I am writing this 50 feet from a fjord.  Beyond that, today’s Republican Party is so radicalized, institutionally and from the top down, that any effort by a conservative like Kittleman (who tries to play the role of moderate) is going to fire up the folks to his right.  This Sanctuary bill puts him in a tough spot.  If he backs it, someone like Mirabile is starting at 30% - 35% in a primary instantaneously.  It becomes the “No New Taxes” in HoCo in the Trump era.  But if he doesn’t support the concept behind the Sanctuary bill, Kittleman loses support among Democrats and moderates who like having a “good Republican” for whom they can vote (See: Anderson ’80, Huntsman ’12, Kasich ‘16).

Frankly, the bill should have three votes on the Council right now.  I understand that Jon Weinstein may have some concerns, but I am not sure why Sigaty is holding back.  Unless she has decided that she wants to run to the right of folks like Ball or Woodcock.  How will that work out for her? Ask President Paul Fucking Tsongas.

Anyway, it seems like the Nullifiers are where the Democratic base is when it comes to Federal immigration policy and the incoming Administration.  It’s a values play: are Americans generous of spirit and respectful of our neighbors or do we run around demanding, “papers, please?”  I don’t know all of the details about that particular piece of legislation, but the fundamental principles behind the debate are the important ones.  And it is always fun when Democrats are able to coalesce human rights, civil rights and state’s rights issues into one package.

Let me answer JB’s viewer mail.  I know his job keeps him occupied and my answers are no better than guesses but until these reindeer stop grazing around my 4C, I am stuck at this bar for a while.

I think he wants to write about other races, including the Board of Education.  He seems jazzed about the current pro-Reform bloc on the BoE and sees opportunities for further progress, with the right candidates, in 2018.  I’m not sure if he thinks there is much to say about County Districts 1 or 5 right now, although he seems high on a “Doctor Z ” even though he is pretty sure she is still steamed over the Schmaltz Incident of ’14.  I think he wants to write about State Legislative Districts 12 and 13…and 9B to a lesser extent, but he wants to hear more from certain incumbents before he engages in open, public speculation involving potential retirements and shifting slates in ’18.

Will he write more? Depends on the gig.  As his mentor, I always told him the key is to “retire young, retire rich.”  The hard-headed bastard never listens. 

Serious offers only on the alpacas.  As is.

Four-on-the-Floor , 15 up for '18?

First, allow me to thank Slats for his spirited analysis of the Howard County Executive race-that –might-be. Second, further permit me to assure you that his thoughts generally reflect the editorial line of this blog. 

Except for the limericks, I removed those.

Before I delve into an early look at County Council District #4, let me begin with some light math.

Population estimate for Howard County (2015) according to the U.S. Census: 313,414. 

Five Council Districts assuming all are roughly equal in size (key word: roughly) = 62,682 residents apiece.  This figure includes people who aren’t yet of the voting age population and it includes non-registered voters who are of legal age to cast a ballot.

Looking at recent contested primaries at this level, relatively speaking, it doesn’t take that many votes to win…

2014:  County Council District One.  Competitive four-way Democratic primary.  4,947 total votes cast, the leading vote getter won with 1,643.

2014: County Council District One. Competitive two-way Republican primary.  2,052 total votes cast, the winner had 1,343.

2014: County Council District Two.  Competitive two-way Republican primary.  1,337 total votes cast, with the eventual nominee obtaining 850.

2010: County Council District Four.  Competitive two-way Democratic primary.  6,238 total votes cast, with the winner securing 3,888.

So what happens if the Open Seat in 4 draws 6 candidates? 8? 10?  Even with a turnout of, say, 10,000 votes, how many votes would constitute a plurality? 

As of this writing, I received 15 names of potential candidates.  All Democrats.  Here they are with some back of the envelope analysis.  These candidates are in no particular order.  Or are they?  They might be in a particular order.  More or less. 

Candace Dodson-Reed.  Heavy hitter in the Ulman Administration who gets both politics and public policy.  Currently playing a key communications and public affairs role at UMBC.  Long-time Democratic activist with many friends in the Fourth.  Would be an excellent candidate for a County or State office.

Byron Macfarlane.  Register of Wills.  Progressive, good-government reform type. Proven County-wide vote getter (twice).  If he were to run, he would instantly be in the top tier.

Bill Santos.  Engineer by trade with a deep background in community engagement and planning/zoning issues.  No slouch on technical expertise.  No one knows Columbia better.  Unknown Factor: would he be a good candidate for public office? 

Josh Tzuker.  Attorney and former Hill Staffer.  Smart, policy-wonk-ish, especially on Federal issues.  Honestly? I don’t know him well enough to comment further on his skillset.

Meet the Feldmarks.  Jessica (current Council Administrator, one couldn’t ask for a better position outside of being a Council Member to see the ins and outs of how it works).  Extensive experience in County government.  And Joshua (non-profit and government experience with a particular focus on sustainability, a salient topic in Howard County). Both also have experience at the community level.  That said, how would either fare on the campaign trail?  From what I hear, Jessica might be the better bet of the two…but will she want to run?

Deb Jung.  Attorney who specializes in counseling non-profits.  First, she lives in the Fourth?  I’ve heard her name in connection with the Fourth but, like Josh T, I just don’t know her that well.  I also hear her name mentioned as a possible Board of Education candidate in ’18.

Now for three more Wilde Lake-focused possibilities:

Regina Clay.  Entrepreneur, trade association executive, former Ulman Administration official and Wilde Lake community activist.  With deep roots and many connections in the community, I could see her considering a run.

Kevin McAliley.  Wilde Lake Village Board Chair and owner of a management consulting firm.  He works rooms like a candidate.  I would be surprised if he isn’t weighing throwing his hat into the ring.

Nancy McCord.  Realtor and CA Board Member. When I saw her asking questions regarding Tax Increment Financing at a fairly recent Village Board meeting, she sounded like someone who was thinking about the future of Columbia’s Downtown…and how she might be able to play a different role there.  I don’t know if she is thinking about it, but I would not be shocked.

Back to the list:

Ellen Flynn Giles.  Does she live in the Fourth too?  I am inclined to believe that a future run on her part, if one were to occur, would involve a Board of Education comeback attempt.  Of the three incumbents who lost in 2016, this author believes that she was the best of the three. I am not trying to condemn with faint praise here.  I was elated about the election of Coombs and Ellis and pleased with Delmont-Small winning the third seat.  That said, I would not dismiss a future Giles run for the BoE out of hand.  But for the 4^th?  I am not seeing it. [Note:  it has since been confirmed that she currently resides in another District].

Alan Klein.  I have seen nothing that would lead me to believe he would be a better candidate now compared to 2010, when he was defeated by Sigaty rather handily in a hard-fought race.  Based on his performance on the CA Board, I would be disinclined to vote for Klein in the General Election should he somehow obtain the Democratic nomination.

Ann DeLacy.  She isn’t a bad person.  I've had a couple of pleasant conversations with her. I just wonder what narratives run through her head sometimes.  I think she had some promise, as a public official, at one time but blew it based on some questionable decisions.  I believe her election to the Council would mean four years of divisive shenanigans at a time when our County needs exactly zero of that.  I am not saying that she would be behind all, most, or some of them…but she does have some issues when it comes to working well with others…or reading a room. 

Honorable Mentions:

Liz Bobo and Lloyd Knowles.  I think their years holding public office are behind them, but they retain a certain base in West Columbia.  Stranger things have happened.

So there you have it, an early look at my home district.

Next up?  Perhaps a combined post on Districts 2 and 3.  We shall see...

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

 

A Very "Special" County Executive Preview

From the Desk of S. MacCune

Political Consultant (Ret.?)

Licensed Alpaca Broker

Phrenologist (Blue Belt)

I admit that my connection to Howard County is attenuated. So when the proprietor of Spartan Considerations asked me to pen a Guest Column, my first question was, how much cash on the barrelhead?  JB launched into some bullshit about the spirit of public service; which I knew meant the “thrifty” bastard wasn’t going to part with Dime One.  After reminding me how many times he picked me up from various Eastern Seaboard airports over the years (as if I can drive my Alfa across the Atlantic), I generously agreed to volunteer my talents for this assignment.      

Although I taught JB everything he knew, or could hope to know, I did have two more questions before I could write this piece:  Who are these people and can I write as I talk?  On the former, he gave me the low-down, on the latter, he said “sparingly.”  Fucking A right. 

So, here is my learned perspective on the County Executive race, which I guess is what passes for hot action in certain [square] circles.  Soak it in.  Soak it ALL in.

Incumbent:  Allan Kittleman.  Look, my read is that Gov. Hogan may not run for re-election, in which case AK (Note: do they call him AK?) looks like a decent gubernatorial candidate.  Moderate in personality if not in policy or appointments, he profiles well for a Republican seeking statewide office in Maryland…and by 2018, what’s left of the Establishment Republican Party might be looking hard at folks like AK to keep the hordes from burning down the rest of the barn.  But let’s say he runs for re-election, he starts with a 42% base in a bad GOP cycle and 45% in a good one.  Given his history, he is unlikely to lose in a blow-out but national trends and unforced errors could send him packing after one term.

Possible Challengers (those receiving the most mentions)

Dr. Calvin Ball. Second Council District.   Democrat.  Well-known, well-liked, and well-respected Council Member.  Big on financial literacy (Note: with Education as the most salient issue in HoCo by a country mile, how important is the financial literacy point of differentiation within the larger Jobs/Economy matrix?).  Former community organizer.  Represents a large chunk of Columbia.  Also an educator (See earlier note re: education).   From what I hear, he’s held the “presumptive frontrunner” slot since mid-November of ’14.  There was no primary last time around for CE.  Will that hold a second time around?  I would be skeptical.

Mary Kay Sigaty.  Fourth Council District.  Democrat.  West Columbia + some parts South.  Has emerged as a big Downtown Development advocate over the course of her tenure on the Council. Faced challenges from Slower Growth advocates in her backyard.   Visible on TIF funding to grow downtown Columbia even further (note:  I wasn’t aware the area by the Columbia Mall was blighted, did a dumpster overflow once?).  Qualified for CE? Sure.  Rationale for her candidacy yet?  Not so much from what I hear.

Bill Woodcock.  Oakland Mills. Democrat.  Long-time activist in Democratic party politics? Check.  Knows public policy and how government services are administered? Check.  Willing to take the fight to the GOP nominee and make a case for a progressive governing vision?  Check.  An outsider choice?  Apparently. 

Other Potentials…(not mentioned as often, but the names pop up…)

Jen Terrasa.  Third Council District.  Democrat.  Southern/Eastern HoCo.  High profile in recent months with a differing take on the need for TIF funding for Downtown Columbia.  JB passed along some speculation about JT possibly being Annapolis-bound at some point.  Who knows. 

Note: no wonder why JB writes less these days.  Almost 600 words in.  I am parched for lack of Aberlour.  

Courtney Watson.  Former First District Council Member, former Board of Education Member.  Standard-bearer for the Democratic Party in ’14 as the CE nominee.  Ran into a buzz-fucking-saw of an election year.  Would have won in 8 out of 10 election cycles.  Retains high Name ID.  Serious policy wonk.  Does she want a re-match? 

Delegate Clarence (the Doc) Lam.  Conventional Wisdom is that Annapolis is a better fit…although not necessarily the House of Delegates. According to observers, look for a shake-up in the D12 Slate for ’18.

Ken Ulman.  Former CE.  Might be a loophole allowing him to seek a third term.  US Grant thought about it, Teddy Roosevelt wanted to, as did Woodrow Wilson.  Didn’t work out for them, and some think it might be tough sledding for Ulman if he went down the Comeback Lane.

Tom Coale.  Attorney.  Ellicott City booster.  Whispers but the smart money is on a big PASS for Coale in ’18.  Maybe Annapolis down the road or a County office in a future cycle.

So all of this is third hand anyway.  Speculation and musings from Maryland’s Heartland. 

Let’s see who reads this far.  What does JB write? “Stay tuned as….” Screw it, who wants an alpaca?  They make great pets.  They eat Combos, no muss, no fuss. Email me. Let’s make some moves.