The Curious Case of Allan Kittleman’s Campaign

First, I have no personal animus toward Senator Kittleman.  He and I have only spoken in-person on one occasion and he was quite pleasant.  He seems reasonably thoughtful.  Moreover, and this is pure speculation-on-stilts, I assume he makes a fine neighbor.  Need to borrow a snow-shovel to get your car out of the driveway?  I am guessing he has a spare and would be glad to help you out.  Anyway, that is how he comes across.

Even if all of this is true, none of it is a reason to vote for him for Howard County Executive. 

He is running a new set of ads that impart the message: vote for the person, not the party.  I don’t buy into that line of thinking. The party to which a person belongs should tell you quite a bit about him or her.  We aren’t born hard-wired as a Republican, Democrat, Libertarian, Green or other.  We choose our partisan affiliation.  Sometimes, over the course of our lives, we re-visit our decisions because we evolve and/or the party changes.  For whatever reason(s), Allan Kittleman decided to stick with the GOP, even in its most recent incarnation – with so much energy coming from its Tea Party wing.

So why did he stay?  Well, this is why I encourage my fellow HoCo denizens to check out the website: www.kittlemanfacts.com.  The reader can see that the reality of his voting record in Annapolis does not exactly square with the moderate image many folks have of Senator Kittleman.  Sure, he tends to adopt more centrist positions on some issues compared to his hard-right colleagues…but take a look at his votes on guns, on education, on the minimum wage, on women’s health issues, and on the environment and one can see that the Senator is actually quite conservative on several important public policy matters.

In addition, he seemed to imply at a candidate forum a few weeks back that a vote for him was a vote to pull the Republican Party in the right (read: correct) direction.  If he really wanted to continue fighting that fight (and again, his voting record will demonstrate that he was aligned with less-than-progressive members of the GOP at least on the issues outlined in the previous paragraph), then why not stay in the State Senate and use that as a forum?  Why not run for re-election instead of seeking another office?    I suppose Kittleman and perhaps his Inner Circle know the answers to those questions.  In any event, that goes to his personal motivations, which need to be distinguished from what he would do in the public sphere, if elected. 

And how can we predict what he might do?  By looking at the choices he has made in the past.  Personally, I believe his decision to remain with the Republican Party and a thorough look at his surprisingly conservative voting record on certain issues are what some like to call “telling facts.”  And while mud can be washed off, facts cling for a very long time. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

 

This one is for you...

HoCo Pollster...come out to play.
HoCo Pollster...come out to play-i-ay!
HoCo Pollster...come out to play-ee-ay!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFQWXsLUokY

Cabal of the Simple-Minded

So I split for Hispaniola for half of a fortnight and I return to find Brown/Ulman up by only six over Hogan/Rutherford.  

I can only assume some as of yet unnamed madness enveloped the Free State while I was roaming the streets of Santo Domingo, searching for an establishment that served high caliber mofongo.  My old friend and current expat, Slats, recommended a spot 18 miles away in Boca Chica – but the roads were far too treacherous and the moon too high in the sky to hazard such a journey. 

But I digress.  The purveyors of Conventional Wisdom, referenced in the title, would have you believe that the Maryland gubernatorial election should be a cakewalk for the Democratic ticket.  “Safe D” they say. 

I still believe that LG Brown will be our next Governor. That said, at this stage of the game, our Dream Team is coming across a bit more Gamble and Hoitz.  For those who recall that film, it worked out in the end but it damn sure wasn’t pretty.

Caveat: I don’t know the particular methodology of the latest aforementioned survey nor have I explored the internals.   This poll could very well be an outlier.  Other, earlier opinion research from June and July shows a Brown lead in the 15% range.  Personally, as of this writing, I feel the lead is in the 10% ballpark.

My larger point is that Republican candidates for Governor can, and have, won in deep-blue states.   Let’s look at some (fairly) recent examples:

In Vermont in 2000, Gore captured 50.6% of the vote, with Nader pulling in another seven percent; then-Governor Bush finished with 40.7%.  Four years later, Kerry secured 58.9% compared to 38.8% for President Bush.  In 2002, Jim Douglas (a Republican) eked out a 45% plurality and won against a Democratic Lieutenant Governor.

Want a better case study?  Sure, how about Massachusetts.  In 2000, Gore carried the state with 59.8% of the vote with Nader obtaining another 6.4%.  Bush? A mere 32.5%.  In 2004, Kerry crushed Bush 61.9% - 36.8%.  In 2002, some Michigan transplant called Mitt defeated the Democratic gubernatorial nominee (the State Treasurer) by a 49.8% - 44.9% margin.  

How about closer to home?  In 2000, Gore won Maryland with 56.5% while Bush managed only 40.3%.  In 2004, the margin tightened a bit – with Kerry only able to win by 13% (55.9% - 42.9%).  Meanwhile, in 2002, GOPer Bobby Haircut beat a Kennedy, also the state LG, with 51.55% of the vote.

Now, 2002 was an odd election cycle – being the first following 9/11.  That said, non-presidential general elections, with lower turnout, can be grim for Democratic office-seekers.

Here is my take on the political realities:

First, many Democrats who did not participate in the primary will vote for the ticket in November.  They just aren’t focused on the race yet.  The challenge is that they need a reason to pay attention and I don’t believe that the Brown/Ulman team is providing a compelling rationale for activation….at least not yet. 

Beyond that, and this applies to a relatively tiny but important slice of the Democratic electorate, there are still some hurt feelings from a bruising primary.  I believe the vast majority of Mizeur and Gansler voters will come home, but some won’t.  I can see a handful from both camps sitting this one out, with perhaps a small percentage of Mizeur voters voting Libertarian while a few Gansler people cross over to vote for Hogan.  Not hordes of voters mind you, but such races can be decided at the margins, by thousands of votes scattered across the state. 

Perhaps Labor Day will witness a spectacular re-unveiling of Brown/Ulman.  That said, it is a little too quiet, even by August standards.  And those who believe that a built-in D advantage ensures their victory would do well to ponder the political fates of Doug Racine, Shannon O’Brien and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.  Brown/Ulman need to consolidate the Democratic base, appeal to Independents and reachable Rs - starting now - otherwise they might be spending more time in La Romana than Annapolis come January.  Slats can hook them up. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

 

Battle of the Network Stars - HoCo Style

Thoughts on the Watson ad, further reflections on the Kittleman ad.  All can be found here:

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onO9PzNtxTg

And So It Begins: TV Ads and the County Exec Race

As was covered here, Republican State Senator & County Executive candidate Allan Kittleman launched his air game this week.

I believe this represents the first major strategic mistake by his campaign.

I don’t believe a critical mass of voters, a number likely to comprise a sizable portion of the November 2014 electorate, are paying attention to political news in late July.  Some voters are keyed in, but not enough to warrant a significant television ad buy in the post-primary/pre-Labor Day weekend timeframe.

From a strictly technical perspective, the “[select] person-on-the-street” approach of the 30-second spot I viewed last night makes sense.  Third party validation by a few Independent and Democratic voters is smart, in light of the HoCo party affiliation numbers.  The production quality of the ad was…OK.  Not polished, not terrible. Somewhere between Steven Spielberg and Mark Borchardt.  The messaging construct was straightforward “I am a [D/I] but I am voting for Kittleman...” About what one would expect from this sort of commercial.

Personally, I think he is flushing cash.  These spots are what you run in September… with a heavier, more concentrated, advertising buy.  I am assuming the Kittleman high command discussed the timing and the explored the merits of an early launch. There is a legitimate case to be made: frame the narrative of the fall campaign now, save some funds by going up when it is less expensive, maybe/hopefully get a spike with Name ID and a more favorable ballot test to help improve fundraising sooner than later, etc…

Note that I said that there is a legitimate case, but not a compelling one.  There are other, better ways to spend time and resources in July and August...especially when:

a) Funds are limited (Watson enjoys a substantial fundraising advantage over Kittleman) and 

b) When the ad is not a game-changer.  The ad I watched did not fall into that category.   

The bottom line: if too few people are watching, what impact are the TV ads really having?   

By October, the Kittleman campaign is going to wish they didn’t go up on the air so early.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.      

HoCo BoE & HCEA (On Apples and Ballots)

A follow-up on my post from yesterday:

There is enough general mishegas going on in and around the Howard County Public School System (HCPSS to you and me) that could lead to a major upheaval in the Board of Education race. Given the players and issues involved, there is sufficient atmospheric volatility that might generate some unexpected outcomes.    

Nevertheless, I would still wager that both incumbents seeking another term in office will be re-elected.  Perhaps one of them ends up in third place but, as of this writing, Vaillancourt and French are good bets for a one-two finish in November.

Regarding the impact of the Howard County Education Association (HCEA) on the HoCo BoE primary election results….well, I thought I already wrote about this.  A long-time reader asked me about it and I was 95% certain it was covered in another post.  So I searched for it online, nothing. 

I have a folder containing about a dozen half-written posts…just random paragraphs sitting around, waiting to be shaped into something, or discarded entirely.  As it turns out, the BoE/Apple Ballot text was right there. So let me combine that (brief) review with the precinct analysis I conducted recently.

In short, the HCEA endorsement of Altwerger, Beams, Furman and Vaillancourt were significant vote drivers, and were of particular importance for the first three names in this sentence.  Given the amount (of dollars) spent on the race by the candidates themselves (negligible), the HCEA money and muscle that went to work for the four constituted a major voter information delivery vehicle. And it produced.

Let us look at this another way.  If you collapse all of the candidate votes (at the polls, absentee, provisional and early voting center) into one bucket and divide it by the number of precincts in Howard County (118), you end up with the following votes in this artificially constructed “average” precinct:

1.     Vaillancourt   134 (HCEA backed)(Incumbent)

2.     French             124 (Incumbent)

3.   Altwerger       108 (HCEA backed)

4.   Furman          101 (HCEA backed)

____________________________________Top Four Vote-Getters

5.   Beams              85 (HCEA backed)

6.   O’Connor         72

7.   Dyer                  65

8.   Smith                57

____________________________________Top Eight Advance to the General Election

9.   Kornreich         54

10. Butler                50    

11. Evans Arthurs 49    

12. Andrews           49

13. Baek                   47

                                   

As always, this is strictly my opinion.  While I don’t have any poll data to verify the following hypothesis, I believe – without the HCEA endorsement – that Vaillancourt would have placed second in the June election.  Her 10-vote per precinct victory margin over French – who is practically a Howard County institution - was supplied by her inclusion on the Apple Ballot. 

And while Altwerger, Furman and Beams are known in certain communities, none of them have the name ID enjoyed by the two incumbents on the ballot; not amongst the primary electorate as a whole.  Dyer is probably better known than those three, even if his Fav/Unfav nets out break-even or negative (again, I have no current data on this). So while they all have strengths, I am inclined to believe that their respective third, fourth and fifth place finishes were driven, in large measure, by the energetic support of the HCEA.

So let future candidates for the BoE – incumbents and challengers alike – take note of that.

Will I be writing about the Kittleman ad blitz soon? Oh yes.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

HoCo Board of Education Primary Election - By the Numbers

Warning:  the author of this blog used to peruse the Baseball Encyclopedia, a massive tome, in the early and mid 80s in a quest to learn #allstats (with apologies to a one “M.G.” for using a derivative of her famous hashtag).

So prepare yourself for a cavalcade…a cavalcade of numbers!

As you are no doubt aware, Cindy Vaillancourt secured the greatest number of votes in the June primary election (15,851), followed by Sandie French (14,688), Bess Altwerger (12,733), and Dan Furman (11,880). 

In this election cycle, the top four vote getters in the general election will be elected to four-year terms on the Howard County Board of Education.   So finishing in the top four in November is a Big Deal.  [Note: In presidential election years (since 2008 anyway), only the top three candidates are elected to the Board. The joys of staggered terms of office].

But enough of these Captain Exposition digressions, let us return to the recent primary official returns…Dr. Zaneb Beams (10,042), Christine O’Connor (8,477), Allen Dyer (7,724), and Mike Smith (6,730) secured the fifth through the eighth positions and will also advance to the general election ballot.

Looking at the precincts:

Vaillancourt placed first in 71 of the 118 Howard County precincts (excluding the absentee, provisional and early voting center votes). Sandie French won in 42, followed by Bess Altwerger (3), Christine O’Connor (3), and Dan Furman (1).  In case you were counting, and I know you were, there were ties for first-place in two precincts.

Vaillancourt and French also finished second in 39 precincts apiece.  Altwerger was second in 28, followed by Furman (7), O’Connor (6), Dyer (2), Olga Butler (1), Leslie Kornreich (1) and Smith (1).

So what does this all mean?  Understanding that the general election electorate tends to be substantially larger than (and significantly different from) a primary election electorate, it tells us a couple of things:

Barring a major shake-up, it is likely that the two incumbents seeking re-election (Vaillancourt and French) will be successful.  In 2006, Frank Aquino and Sandie French were the top two vote getters, respectively, in the primary election.  They maintained those positions in the general election.  The same outcome occurred in 2008 with Janet Siddiqui and Ellen Flynn Giles.  In 2010, French secured the greatest number of votes in the primary election, followed by Aquino.  They flipped positions in the general, with Aquino obtaining a plurality with a 1,005-vote margin over French.  The earlier 1-2 pattern was revisited with Siddiqui placing first and Ann DeLacy second in both the primary and general 2012 elections. 

So while both Vaillancourt and French need to expand their bases, considerably, in order to return for another term, recent history would seem to indicate they are better positioned for a top-four finish than the other six candidates.

As non-incumbents, Altwerger (3^rd) and Furman (4^th) will have to hustle to maintain their in-the-money positions.

Third place finishers in recent Board of Education primary elections have a mixed track record.  Winners include Patricia Gordon (third in both the primary and general election in 2006) and Giles (also third in both elections in 2012).  Both were also incumbents.  On the other hand, challenger Diane Butler placed third in the 2008 primary…only to finish fourth (behind Dyer) and thus failed in her election bid.  Another then challenger and now BoE nominee Larry Walker secured the third position in the 2010 primary, but finished eighth in the general election. 

Those who place fourth in “modern era” BoE primaries have (generally) fared well.  The roster of the victorious includes Lawrence Cohen (fourth in both the primary and general in 2006), Dyer (fourth in the primary but making the cut-off with a third place finish in 2008), and Brian Meshkin (fourth in the 2010 primary; third in the general election of the same year).  In 2012, Jackie Scott held the fourth position in the primary, but went on to the finish sixth in the general.

Pardon as I slip into editorial mode; but I voted for Beams in the primary and I am inclined to cast a ballot for her in November.  From a geographic perspective, Beams tended to perform consistently.  She finished in the top eight in over 100 precincts but finished no higher than third in any precinct. 

I am also taking a good look at Christine O’Connor’s candidacy.  She has more of an identifiable geographic base, securing first or second place finishes in nine eastern HoCo precincts.  

Both Beams and O’Connor will need to build broader coalitions to have any hope of winning a seat this time around.

I am concerned that Dyer will be able to trade off of his relatively high name identification and wind up finishing fourth, or even third.  This author finds that scenario unpalatable. 

Beyond having an easy-to-pronounce last name and a distinctive affinity for alternative neckwear options, I don’t see Mike Smith placing any higher than seventh, sixth on a freakishly good day.

Looking at those who did not advance to the general election:

Kornreich is entering the realm of frequent (dare I say “perennial?”) candidate although, in all fairness, she came close to eighth place and a ticket to the Big Show.  My thoughts on Corey Andrews and electoral politics are fairly well known.  Tom Baek seems like a good, thoughtful person but I don’t believe he possesses a fantastic candidate skill-set.  Not a criticism, just a personal opinion that he is not a Natural politico.    

I believe that Olga Butler and Maureen Evans Arthurs ran decent campaigns and should consider seeking public office down the road.  

But back to 2014, I project that the real action will be for the third and fourth positions and we are going to see a dogfight involving five candidates for those two slots: Altwerger, Furman, Beams, O’Connor, and Dyer.  With slightly over 100 days to go until Election Day, it will be a delight watching this race evolve.

Now where did I put those encyclopedias?

Stay tuned, as more will follow.