Monday, October 29, 2018

Topline Thoughts on Early Voting Trends

Based on the Unofficial Numbers released by the Maryland Board of Elections:

-       4 days of EV down and of the 21,809 early voters who cast their General Election ballots through 10/28/18, 61.0% are registered Democrats (22.1% Republican, 15.6% Unaffiliated, and 1.3% Other). 
-       Compare this to the actual eligible active voter registration breakouts, which are 50.4% Democratic, 25.7% Republican, 22.3% Unaffiliated, and 1.7% Other.
-       These turnout numbers signal a pronounced enthusiasm gap in Howard County – with a larger percentage of Democrats having already rushed to the polls.  12.3% of registered Democrats have already early voted, compared to 8.75% of Republicans, 7.1% of the Unaffiliated, and 7.7% of those registered with other parties.
-       I expect the Election Day turnout to be slightly more Republican than what we have seen thus far.  It is also important to note that we still have four more days of Early Voting and the absentee & provisional ballots to consider.
-       Assume for a moment that the composition of the 2018 General Election electorate in Howard County is 60% Democratic (or higher).  Given that set of conditions, it is challenging to see a scenario whereby Kittleman wins re-election unless he pulls 30% or more of the Democratic vote...that is unlikely.
-       Let’s look at another turnout model for a moment.  Even with Democrats comprising only 55% of the electorate, the race would still be extremely competitive, assuming Ball can garner 40% of the Unaffiliated/Other vote and at least 2% of the Republican vote – while keeping Kittleman below 25% among registered Democrats.
-       In short, thus far in Howard County, the hard GOTV work is working for the Democrats.
-       Turning to the Councilmanic districts for a moment…the EV turnout has been heaviest in District 1 with 11.87% of the voters in that district having cast their ballots through 10/28/18 (not a shock, as this is HoCo’s true swing district). I would not be surprised if a partisan breakout of District One Early Voters revealed a favorable trend for Walsh.  The second highest EV turnout has been recorded in District 4 (11.44%), which features the Jung vs. Kim race.  High turnout should bode well for Jung.    
-       Focusing on state legislative races, EV turnout is very high in 9B (13.7%, the highest in the state by a considerable margin).  Turnout is also solid in the Howard County portion of District 12 (11.2%).  Watson in 9B and Team 12 should find those numbers encouraging.

 In solidarity.


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